RJ Barrett – Knicks, Pics, & Politics

I’m unsure if we’re watching the same thing.

After 23 games last seasons the Knicks were 10-13.

When you compare it to this seasons 11-12 record and it’s just so incredibly Knicks and so incredibly emotional to say, “We’re shit and awful and everyone’s a fraud!” when we stand at in a better place than last season. That is an objective fact.

Addressing the feeling is necessary because I go through it too like during the 3rd quarter, it is known. The bases of my critique is that what we achieved last year was a team coming together along the season. The beginning of any season is always the biggest trap for ANY analysis because you’re just operating off less data. Admitting to be being completely hyperbolic, but I don’t know off the top of my head what in life is ever a true linear progression, so why we expect that from our team?

Another thing to keep in mind is the Knicks played their first 25 games without Derrick Rose.

The Trade Market Thoughts

First rule of the trade market is that it doesn’t really open up until there’s trade eligibility. For anyone signed in the offseason, they can’t be traded until what always ends up being like 25-30 games into the next season.

Second rule is that these players are people and while it may be in your power to just uproot someone, doing so without the consent of the athlete can really paint an organization in a certain kind of light. People want to be respected so that’s the very least you could do if you were operating any organization.

I’d be surprised if you saw an Rose/RJ/IQ/Randle/Obi included in any deal at this point. Some may be for some exceptional star, but I think the organization is invested in those five more than the rest to varying degrees and rationale. Without being able of putting them in numerical order due to being an irrational fan, for some it’s potential growth they see in them where as for others it’s what they bring now as well. Maybe both for one or another.

There’s draft capital and other supplemental players on the roaster that may want to have a change or fresh start. Maybe there’s some other factor or need for a specific person that the Knicks could help. It’s only my conjecture but I think Obi’s growth and what his role is or could be for this team has made a few redundancies no longer palatable. You’d be lying to yourself if you claimed you wouldn’t be surprised if any of the players above were traded, but it also still could happen. We can’t know what’s pretty exclusive information like peoples private lives, let alone wealthy one’s.

Welcome to Copeland

Knicks fan created, Copeland. Larger than life and his numbers will ever tell you, Chris Copeland played forward for the Knicks, Bucks, and Pacers. He had a certain level of fandom and brought joy to this New York Knicks fanbase.

We were introduced to Cope as 28 year old rookie. Beloved by Breen he showcased in his rookie year a 42% 3-point clip and had shown some good rim finishing well on occasion too. He played well enough to secured life changing money on Indiana but he was always cherished in Knicks land. He played 4 years in the league and which during he suffered from a infamous stabbing.

Reality is harsh but if you’re wondering what we’re doing in Copeland, what about the trades or how any of this matters… that is by design. The idea is to build slowly to have a more sound perspective on things that are otherwise emotional or hard to define. With certain foods/meals, it can take a certain pallet to enjoy it as viscously as someone from that culture/region/time, or generally for that matter. The same can be with both the individual words said or unsaid. You can include the overall narrative too.

Fairly and finally before we get to the point or piece that connects all this is all the above and below is my conjecture that can be right or wrong.

The Point

Thibs was COY last year, but it’s not absolvent. He has flaws but there’s no way he’s just throwing shit at the wall to not win. He’s going to try to win with what he knows which can be rigid fundamentally but he does have some nuance with some players he trusts. To the extent he’s even rigid fundamentally is also up for a bit of debate because he’s changed from Chicago to Minnesota and from his time even on the Knicks.

I do believe there’s trades the Knicks could make that could put the players they’re most vested in as advantageous position as possible but to the extent it might be a reality may be the last 8-10 minutes of a game. To change the team around for that short a time, you’ve got to be so precise in your ability to judge talent and how it might complement in alternative situations that it borderlines impossibility. I’m also not terribly creative or have the cap knowledge to facilitate “real trades.” What I do is tweak with numbers to discover more outcomes for better or worse.

The simplest way to I can quantify the concept is to imagine players who qualify the rules of the trade market, your team, and available players as a “piece” in Texas Hold’em.

You’re vested players are the community cards.

Small Blind & Big Blind would be players qualifying for the trade market rules. Your remaining chips or what you bet with separate of obligated money/contract matching, would be your draft capital.

“Winning the Pot” would be acquiring talent that supplements your vested talent. It could be the case there’s no available agreement to be had without including one of those vested players. Maybe there’s a few teams with major draft deficits with unhappy talent that might have other needs. It could also be the case that as the team gets healthy, if that’s possible, you decide to keep you’re current talent and chips and not trade anyone.

In my opinion the ideal 4-5 Rotation game to game would look like:

Randle: 35 Mins
Mitch: 25 Mins
Obi: 25 Mins / 10 minutes w/ Randle
Taj: 16 Minutes / 4 minutes qtr avg

If we’re talking about Sims instead of Taj:

Randle: 35 Mins
Mitch: 25 Mins
Obi: 25 Mins
Sims: 11 Mins

There’s noticeable exceptions but what I want to talk about is Mitch. I’m unsure we can ignore he’s added a lot of weight, and while he’s improved in ways, there’s a glint of freakishness missing and I don’t know if it’s because he hasn’t been 100% this season. It’s just somethings not all the way there and he’s also expressed coming off the bench before. It’s not like Thibs doesn’t trust Taj. What if he just started for 4 minutes? Idk how radical that would be but maybe that’s a way to get Mitch a bit more engaged? I’m spit balling. Until Mitch can play extended minutes for a while, I want his minutes around what his season average is. Also, in Obi’s dream minutes, could he have AT LEAST Copelands usage when he was with us? I’m sure Obi’s better, and as can be inferred above, I hold Copeland in high esteem in Knicks history and lore. Reality never boar it out what he teased he could be in spurts, but Obi seems like real deal and we should lean into that with clearing up some positional overlap.

As for the positional shake up currently occurring with Kemba’s exclusion removal from the line-up and it’s also likely where we’d see traded talent if trades were to occur. It’s hard to say how the remaining positions might look like. I’ll say that even with the exclusion of all those listed vested players, there’s a lot of various contract matching points the Knicks can make depending on how creative they might need to be. Again, this would be assuming the player is also looking for a change as well but I won’t be listing the various amounts of possibilities, but I count more than 10+ casually.

Who were Randle’s comments for?

Now admittedly, I could be out on a limb here for a branch that doesn’t exist. Caveat out, who I believe drew some of the ire of Randle is actually us, fans generally. I think Randle has been through it and is okay with playing in here, signing his extension for lifechanging money, but also flexibility for New York to build with him validates that.

It’s nothing to be in a tizzy about or think he’s being immature because he should expect that. I just think all he’s really saying is he wants to win, they want to win and part of their success, for better or worse, are the fans which brings them up. Just my two cents, but that’s about as far as I go with conjecture because this devolves into fan policing too quick if we’re not already teetering the line.

We’re better than we were last year. That’s objective if only by a margin so far as wins produced. The team is far from optimized but their not all bad problems to have, just having a few growing pains as the team tweaks with the rotation and potentially the roster as the trade exceptions begin to expire. I also think there’s a bit more of the slide but I try to not count wins or losses before they happen once we’re in the season. Even with my thoughts, I still believe this team has the potential to have good stretches for reasons of past precedence of RJ having a slow start and the team performing well late in the season after working out the kinks. I still hold onto the 50+ win dreams.

-Until Next Time

To anyone is Knick’s world the RJ Barrett snub of either all-rookie team was caused by the changing goal posts the media likes to hit to fit their new numbers on judging rookies against each other without comparing their teams & situations like all their opportunities is equal. Him not being on that team doesn’t change the reality of him being one of the 10 best rookies last year. He’s still at least the 3rd best player in that draft and I will touch on the stretch RJ was putting together before the shut down, and the added parts to his game we see already in the preseason.
This isn’t MVP numbers by any means but just to give the full context and my opinion having watched all his tape from his rookie year and his early preseason games. During his last month of play (12 games) RJ averaged 17/4.5/2.8 on 44% (6.33/14.42) from the field, 28% (1.25/4.17) from distance, and 64% (3.16/4.75) from the line. Due to the shutdown and subsequent outcomes of COVID, it was the longest offseason for non-playoff teams in a non-lockout year, obsessive basketball players are likely to see larger than usual improvements in their games. It’s also important to understand his position and the archetype of his growth to the modern game is that of Lebron-Lite.
To what degree and to what people would actually accept that is one thing but moving forward to Lebron’s 19 year-old season, he posted higher numbers (because he’s Lebron), but there are noticeable similarities to their game and their percentages. Lebron’s rookie numbers are 21/5.5/5.9 on 44% (7.9/18.9) from the field, 29% (.8/2.7) from three, and 75% (4.4/5.8) from the line. Cleveland also went 35-47 his rookie year as well. It’s also important that Mike Miller (an actual coach) the Knicks were playing at a 33 win-pace. That would be more reflective of the Knicks teams play since we’re removing Fizdale’s “coaching.” If you believe other wise you must not have been watching. Fiz aside, the percentages are very similar and the numbers for that stretch are Lebron-like on less production and usage. Lebron could handle that usage and is a better creator and player but he was also given the keys to the offense where in RJ’s case, he’s not able to run the offense with Payton in tow.

Now to look at RJ’s first two preseason games, there’s even a further context to those numbers since he missed his first six shots. He finished his first game on 7/10 and then put up 10/17 the following game. He showed an improved decision making, cleaned up his mid-game pull-back and hit 5 of his first 7 free throw attempts (71%). I cannot imagine Payton being on the team past the trade deadline with how he and RJ are players that clash on the floor. When and if he’s traded will greatly impact RJ’s ability to produce and have more of an opportunity to create and learn how to better facilitate. Part of his growth will be in opportunity given, but with enough caveats, RJ can seriously surprise the league coming. My prediction is he’ll average 20/6/4 shooting 47% (9/19) from the field, 33% (1.4/4.2) from beyond the arc. If he can average 6 free throw attempts, which he averaged in college, and convert 68-70% from the line, he could even push his points total closer to 22/23 a game. Comparing that against his actual rookie averages of 14.3/5/2.6 and what he seems capable of if given the additional responsibility with his visible improvements it would be hard to ignore the possibility for the most improved player. Adding in the chip on his shoulder being left off the All-Rookie teams meaning most of NBA discourse is down on RJ. Flipping that perspective would also give those same minds a narrative to go along with the numbers for Most Improved Player.