Category: Scale Measurement Thoughts

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How to unpack? Scale Measurement Thoughts

Can we unpack COVID-19?

Truth be told, I’m not sure what’s going to happen but the trends are not looking great. In some ways you first need the story of the numbers which can now give us a glimpse of what we can expect because some places in the world have gone through a viral cycle of sorts. Now while the context of numbers can be lost on some, I want to share where I’m getting this from Duc C. Vuong. A lot of what of this is will be based off his video(s) late in August. He’s been a great resource all through the pandemic but before we get into the roots, the focus is trying to understand whats happening in the world.

During the first wave* of the pandemic we had no context for the numbers of infected and those who died. On April 1st when Spain and France were the face of the pandemic as Italy was beginning to drop, Spain had 9,700 cases (8,000 7-day avg) and on August 28th, they had almost 9800 cases (7,600 7-day avg). Likewise, France had 4,800 cases (4,500 7-day avg) and just had 7,000 cases (4600 7-day avg) on August 28th. The last piece of context is Italy and at their peak when most of the Western World, sadly, began to emphasize with the people suffering from COVID-19. At their peak they were are over 5,000 cases, sustained for over a week. While not as radical, they’re not at the same pace, cases have begun to rise as they’re climbing above 20% of their countries first peak.

*In America, please read: start. context below

In the United States, there was no end to the first wave… for the understanding of the impacts there.

As for the United States, which never flattened the numbers of cases or deaths to any sort of most of the world achieved as, our outcomes may be the most bleak. Now that we have the context for countries above as to where they stand right now (very bleak), how do we contextualize the space the United States is in. An effective way is to attempt to try and focus on the stories the numbers are telling us based on the past six months. Now while I am political this is about empathy as sad or pathetic as that might sound. On the chance anyone outside of my world has a chance to see this and maybe live would be the context above for the analysis below.

There are a few things we can glean from past to give us an idea of the numbers for tomorrow. First would be that the second wave is worse than the first. For countries like Spain and France, unless behavior curbs dramatically, they can see case numbers two to three fold of the first wave. If Italy was on the brink at 5,000 cases a day for a week, what happens if the second wave peak is at 12,000 cases a day? Will their systems collapse and what would that do to all cause mortality? How much non-direct death will be caused from the sheer scale of COVID (3.4% death rate globally: 8-30-2020)? Will there be enough treatment through therapies, or a vaccine by some miracle, to help bring outliers in death rate closer to the mean? Will it be significant enough to combat the pressure that volume of cases puts on their medical systems? Those are the kind of questions Europeans should be asking themselves right now if there’s any way to stymie the second wave begin to crash, west to east.

If those are the questions Europe what are the ones Americans face? What questions give us the context of what’s in front of us? In some ways our adversity is similar, but also quite different. While the scale paints a picture of a death rate between 3 -4% globally, that is not how the United States measure the current crisis. If you took the deaths of Spain (29,000), Italy (35,000), and France(30,000) and compare that to the United States alone the United States during the same period, we still double the deaths. By a factor of 2:1 of COVID mortality since the pandemic began on not a 1:1 comparison, but a 1:3 instead. Simply put, the only way I can contextualize COVID in America is doing what you can to prevent death. How much? It’s not even quantifiable but when we begin to realistically cross into a conversation of being too cautious, maybe that’s when we can find the value of how much or for how long. It’s not relevant when we can’t even prevent the death occurring in this country.

The idea that between 15,000 & 20,000 cases a day before we collectively thought we needed to close schools. Opening them will allow the virus to grow exponentially more than if schools waited a semester especially based on how much worse the loss of life has been in the States. The haphazard decision to open schools by the white house and that being at around 40,000-50,000 cases a day now, how do you begin to reconcile closing them before 20,000 daily cases and opening them before they fall below even 40,000.

Not only do the decisions bare skepticism relating to safety and caution, but the numbers also paint the American reality is worse than the very bleak outlook for Europe. Can the United States rapidly change the behavior of the people? Will there be a fundamental change as far as the white houses approach to COVID? If the numbers of cases can grow as Spain and France are projected above, has the number of people infected potentially limit the growth due to the scale of those already infected? Certainly the United States will have a new peak, but since the first wave never ended, there’s less certainty that can be drawn.

To round out the view Americans should adopt to accomplish as much prevention of death is difficult as our scenario is so different. Personally I believe that sharing our fears and emotions in this moment could be a start (virtually). Outside of that, keeping circles of peoples those whom you truly consider family physically and communicate remotely whether for work or your friends whom are outside of that and be empathetic. This is going to be very dark. Things are going to get worst. As far as death we’re top of the charts and it’s not close. With that, keep in contact with your friends and loved ones. Maintain the distance when in social spaces and do what you can to protect your mouth and nose from either spreading or contracting the virus. In short, wear your masks, wash your hands, and form preventive habits to give you and your family the best chance for lessened pain.

~Stay safe

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Politics Scale Measurement Thoughts

How should we unpack? – Housing

Since the beginning of COVID, I’ve struggled to focus on material benefits. Initially I looked for disagreement because I like to argue on some degree. Instead I want to first see the picture before making any judgement so in that, what is the picture? Where are we as a country and how do we find solutions for material benefits?

The U.S. workforce pre COVID was around 165 million people. Over 40 million folks lost their jobs due to the Coronavirus which converts to an effective unemployment rate of roughly 25%. Will all those jobs be gone forever? No that isn’t likely but there’s a few other numbers to remind ourselves of before we even get there. First is that in 2019, 40% of Americans couldn’t cover a $400 emergency in a reliable way. They would incur a burden that would further their economic disparity. 40% of people living in America is roughly 130-140 million people one emergency away from being unable to pay their recurring expenses. Keeping that in mind, last month, 32% of U.S. households didn’t make their housing payments. In that 19% made no payment, where the other 13% only made a portion of their rent/mortgage. The context from the U.S. Census means that 38 million people in America are at risk for eviction should the trend continue or worsen. Finally, this is also without counting for the racial disparities with this issue from the echoes of Jim Crow making black and brown Americans in particular uniquely disadvantaged. To combat that, any solutions should first tackle the most affected communities because they’re, at minimum, largely in those positions because their families have always been left out in any sort of economic uplifting in the past. Not by accident but purposefully excluded. 

My proposal would be Find, Fill, & Fix. First would be locating the empty apartments, homes, and unused commercial space. Second would be to fill them with people but also fill their hands with tools and their minds with books. Give them time to learn because the first two steps will take some time. Time is needed before the finale, Fix. It is no secret the infrastructure for this country is poor. Implement a federal jobs program for empowering the health of that infrastructure by providing those newly jobless peoples with a guaranteed job with a living wage to help these people break their link to the debt cycles they were caught in prior to the COVID crisis. They would be focused on the areas around the apartment or home and not be limited by uniformity. Allow the people their own space to be creative in their repair of our broken infrastructure so we can begin with a new one one where everyone of every race can be included.

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Scale Measurement Thoughts

How does this moment scale with history?

Well whats 22,000/750,000? That is roughly 2.93% which was the amount of risk Britain wagered to maintain power in to what is now the America, Latin, Central, North, South or otherwise. When all was said and done, they only just began to experience losses on their gamble did they want to surrender. If something impacts all peoples “society, counties, populations of peoples, symbolism of cultures and behaviors” in some way to understand a population and imperial data based on the very things that got us here. With math and compassion can you understand the pain of our human history.

Oh yeah, the argument for 3%. So every system has a cost whether through corruption, risk, and natural disasters. Mortality is a measure on society. Once it crosses certain points, either purposeful or through severe negligence. The outcomes are irresponsible, so how one participated isn’t really a point worth arguing about because it’s not the point. While I took the time to emphasize the %, its less about the number and how it compares to losses of systems, especially if it impacts systemic issues. If the logic is sound, I’m curious about two populations compares to all populations, followers of Q, and involvement in church. The thing to test in both those populations would be % of those abused against the whole population. The reason is really to have empathy for anyone, even if they spark rage in you.

First is the almost god given purpose and duty this gives to people feeling powerless. You give yourself agency when the games been stacked against you forever and you’re resentful. The purpose they claim is righteous. I don’t think what they’re claiming is going on, as far as sexual predatory, emotional, and physical abuses isn’t baseless. I would just like to present a an other hypothesis to the charges they bring. I put another for the blame; the Church. In the case of Spotlight* there was roughly 16.7% of priests who “molested children over several decades.” (NPR) I’ve tried to grasp what that means, not so much from an individual level, but of societal. Even if it was 6% of priests worldwide, the scale is still unimaginable. Instead I need to know outcomes from such a heinous act, from someone whom are trusted, who is a pillar in your community. The confusion those abusive monsters created for so many people. Outcomes from that starts from the broken people that systemic abuse emboldened would hardly be unique. Would those people be opposed to digging for the truth for they fear the truth within themselves? It is also not only the abuser and the abused who are effected from these society rotting crimes. All of society will bare that pain for it’s a failure of systems to protect against.

Food for thought at the end, I’ve got to really expand my knowledge and next Political post is going to happen after I understand how anti-Muslim sentiment empowered Nazi’s after WWI. That or I misunderstood it and it was something else entirely, we’ll find out together.

*(famous case uncovering the abuse of children from priests in Boston.)