When I started this project, my limited knowledge has me in a state of long-term learning while I try to make sure my tone isn’t mixed in with my own feeling.
COVID-19
Here we will be seeing how my stated July theory on COVID-19. I’ve written a few pieces which can be used as other examples to show my interest and care in writing on the virus. The entire thread can be found here but the main hypothesis from analyzing the data was, “The most at risk populations are adults between the ages of 25-60 whom are unvaccinated, as well as children too young to be vaccinated. There’s a exponentially compounding issue here.” The briefest way I could summarize what it is lead me to that thought follows as such:
- The US has a large group of very vaccine hesitant working age adults
- Obese adults (42% of all adults) face the highest risk for mortality
- Children and teenagers are mostly not vaccinated
- The US was 5 to 6 weeks out behind the U.K. as far as COVID impact w/ greater overall obesity rates at the time (7.21.21/7.26.21)
Given all of this three questions were itching at me which drove myself to feel quite strongly about vaccine mandates.
- What’s 5-6 weeks out from 7.21.21, an interview with Michael Osterholm (Director at CIDRAP, the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy) on the Majority Report?
- Are there any potential overlaps between the two most at risk populations? Underlined above for clarity
- Are there any looming catalyst/super spreader events or situations happening between July 21st and September 1st
I’m not going to lose everyone with the numbers as there’s a base and foundation we have to accept based on the information we have or had at the time.
The American elderly have fairly good vaccinated rates comparing to the whole population. At the time of the thread on July 26th, four out of five adults of retirement age were fully vaccinated and almost 90% had at least one shot. It would stand that while there’s still 5-6 million unvaccinated elderly people, they’re vaccine rates are greater than younger Americans.
Now there’s going to be a very key thing to grasp here that will require a little mental labor, and good faith to begin to wrestle with. It’s no conspiracy that first time parents are getting older for a multitude of different issues. What causes that isn’t the point to focus on but more than it is happening. Secondly, to my second question, are there potential overlaps between the most at risk populations (children/teens & working age unvaccinated adults)? Here’s a couple things we can say:
- Average age of first time mothers in 1972 was 21 years old, up to 26 in 2018
- Average age of first time fathers in 1972 was 27 years old, up to 31 in 2018
There’s no judgement for having children whenever people do. This is to simple illustrate & understand this is the current meta or dynamic for families as they exist and where the behavior is trending.
Speaking generally, while future parents are trending to be older, the larger group of people already alive and living today are under the prior number dynamics. Teenagers born between 2004-2007, on average, have parents in their early to mid 40’s or the prime of their working years. Generally, 40% of those adults are obese which has been linked to poor outcomes irrespective of age. If you isolate for non-obese and obese people in a specific age or population, the obese are going to have worse outcomes with COVID-19.
As we mentioned above, the largest group of unvaccinated people at this point in July, and now, are the working age adults not vaccinated already and children and teenagers. Until very very recently, there was no proper dosage amount that’s been tested for safety. This is currently under FDA review. It would then stand that these groups of unvaccinated populations could potentially compound to create multiplicative issues.
If we can establish this as a general baseline, and not take this as a prescription to individuals upon various approaches for a population can this next part be fruitful. I’ll clarify again that there’s no judgment or approach I’m looking to analyze for this apparent behavior, more that these are things we can take away broadly from the data available to us. Enough qualifiers, there were two consecutive events that occurred in-between the period of time from the formation of the theory to early September, Sturgis Bike Rally and the beginning of the scholastic year for most students around the country.
On Sturgis, it’s important to understand the impact it had on COVID cases and deaths last August. Cases and deaths function as lagging indicators and understanding that cycle is important to capture shared social events that impacted and propagated the spread of the virus. I would recommend looking back on cases from August through October of last year to see what wild-type COVID’s growth occurred from these events. Hybrid schooling and remote schooling was most often utilized when possible which is distinctly different from last year to today. Back when I wrote as the effects of Sturgis was beginning to be felt (8.30.20) I wrote these ominous statements, “This is going to be very dark. Things are going to get worst.” This was back when the U.S. death toll was still well short of 200,000. We’ve more than tripled the deaths in a year. Even with the introduction of the vaccine, we apparently lost another 2,000 lives to COVID-19 over the weekend, averaging 1,800-1,900 Monday through Friday last week. These growing cases and deaths would substantiate the pieces of the theory relating to the risks of opening up schools with little to no restrictions (unknown, but would seem risky), and Sturgis (certifiably known) could be some of the major factors to this COVID growth today.
I’ll finish this section with a brief statement about the context of the obesity among adults in the country. No one wants to be seen as obese in the current society so I’ll be as clear and direct as possible with this.
Taking all context above into account and remaining general, the largest population of the unvaccinated are working age adults and children and teenagers. Obesity being one of the leading predictors for poor outcomes is empirical. It’s also known that with the overlap of these populations irrespective of obesity. We know Sturgis propagated the virus in the past and while it’s unknown, there’s some early reporting of issues of children and teens getting COVID, likely exposing their households and their working age parent(s). We known adults over the age of 20 are obese at a rate of 42%. Lastly, we understand the delta variant to have the same viral cycle but with a yield is 2-3x the yield of the wild-type variant.
It means we can say with confidence, that given what we know, the at risk populations have a degree of compounding overlap. It poses an extreme risk to those working age adults whom are obese that are still unvaccinated. Looking at where we’ve been just over a year ago to this moment and it feels that very little has changed. Well… except a more concentrated group of at risk people which is incredibly disheartening.
Afghanistan
It’s both good we’ve now ended our 20 year violent engagement in Afghanistan and that there was never going to be an perfect withdrawal process. Often I find a lot of critiques from the right start by making perfection the enemy of the good which is ultimately defeatist and anti-political engagement. It is community destroying and promotes apathy when we should be promoting civic engagement on a much more local level.
Pokémon Unite
Blastoise needs a nerf and Slowbro needs a buff.
Sports
Without basketball, what do we even have? One more month of dread…
Alex Jones
Terrible conspiracy theorist & incredibly harmful entertainer was quite attractive when he was young.
Texas Abortion Law
Generally, I’m not going to be okay with giving the state the power to police what consenting adults do. What an induvial chooses to do with their body is their own business. It’s also quite incredible that while a man assumes none of the actual burden and risk with carrying a child, some feel they have superior input to what a women should or shouldn’t be able to do with their bodies. It sounds like expanding the states power to infringe on the rights of the individual is what occurring in Texas. While it may be abhorrent to yourself or a group, whether or not something is “okay” with any individual group is not a reason for illegality or state sponsored action to curb. Ultimately your individual preferences are not supposed to reflective of federal or even state law as the idea of separation of church and state is pretty important to the founding documents and the development of the state.
Met Gala & A.O.C.
I think it can be tricky to understand the calculus of wearing a dress broad casting your ideas/ideals. While there’s various approaches to growing the civically engaged population, I’m not about to preach efficacy or say one way is better than another. My only point would be if the approach puts a sour taste in your mouth, then extend the possibility that you may not be the audience.
Personally I don’t give a shit about a lot of these events so I don’t care. I’m only making a comment that attempting to limit the avenues for growing a population and starting a conversation is when you also limit the range of a groups political aim.
Brian Laundrie
He did that shit. I’m not a legal professional, and this is just my opinion, but he killed his fiancé.
Border Patrol
Regardless of how righteous you might feel in treating other human beings of different populations and culture, maybe don’t invoke loaded imagery. What’s being reported here is not just the poor imagery, but blaming asylum seekers for doing what is within both international and U.S. law seems to show a complete misunderstanding of issues. My goal is to not be overly inflammatory; however if the behavior and imagery of the border patrol agents does not bother you, please fix the bankruptcy of empathy and take a step back to understand they’re following the law when trying to come here via asylum. You’re sick in the head if you feel the boarder agents are justified in their behavior and treatment of those migrants.
School Shooting – Virginia
Gun violence will continue to be normalized but nothing is normal about the growing threat of shooters on school grounds.





