Category: Knicks

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Knicks as I see it

I’m unsure if we’re watching the same thing.

After 23 games last seasons the Knicks were 10-13.

When you compare it to this seasons 11-12 record and it’s just so incredibly Knicks and so incredibly emotional to say, “We’re shit and awful and everyone’s a fraud!” when we stand at in a better place than last season. That is an objective fact.

Addressing the feeling is necessary because I go through it too like during the 3rd quarter, it is known. The bases of my critique is that what we achieved last year was a team coming together along the season. The beginning of any season is always the biggest trap for ANY analysis because you’re just operating off less data. Admitting to be being completely hyperbolic, but I don’t know off the top of my head what in life is ever a true linear progression, so why we expect that from our team?

Another thing to keep in mind is the Knicks played their first 25 games without Derrick Rose.

The Trade Market Thoughts

First rule of the trade market is that it doesn’t really open up until there’s trade eligibility. For anyone signed in the offseason, they can’t be traded until what always ends up being like 25-30 games into the next season.

Second rule is that these players are people and while it may be in your power to just uproot someone, doing so without the consent of the athlete can really paint an organization in a certain kind of light. People want to be respected so that’s the very least you could do if you were operating any organization.

I’d be surprised if you saw an Rose/RJ/IQ/Randle/Obi included in any deal at this point. Some may be for some exceptional star, but I think the organization is invested in those five more than the rest to varying degrees and rationale. Without being able of putting them in numerical order due to being an irrational fan, for some it’s potential growth they see in them where as for others it’s what they bring now as well. Maybe both for one or another.

There’s draft capital and other supplemental players on the roaster that may want to have a change or fresh start. Maybe there’s some other factor or need for a specific person that the Knicks could help. It’s only my conjecture but I think Obi’s growth and what his role is or could be for this team has made a few redundancies no longer palatable. You’d be lying to yourself if you claimed you wouldn’t be surprised if any of the players above were traded, but it also still could happen. We can’t know what’s pretty exclusive information like peoples private lives, let alone wealthy one’s.

Welcome to Copeland

Knicks fan created, Copeland. Larger than life and his numbers will ever tell you, Chris Copeland played forward for the Knicks, Bucks, and Pacers. He had a certain level of fandom and brought joy to this New York Knicks fanbase.

We were introduced to Cope as 28 year old rookie. Beloved by Breen he showcased in his rookie year a 42% 3-point clip and had shown some good rim finishing well on occasion too. He played well enough to secured life changing money on Indiana but he was always cherished in Knicks land. He played 4 years in the league and which during he suffered from a infamous stabbing.

Reality is harsh but if you’re wondering what we’re doing in Copeland, what about the trades or how any of this matters… that is by design. The idea is to build slowly to have a more sound perspective on things that are otherwise emotional or hard to define. With certain foods/meals, it can take a certain pallet to enjoy it as viscously as someone from that culture/region/time, or generally for that matter. The same can be with both the individual words said or unsaid. You can include the overall narrative too.

Fairly and finally before we get to the point or piece that connects all this is all the above and below is my conjecture that can be right or wrong.

The Point

Thibs was COY last year, but it’s not absolvent. He has flaws but there’s no way he’s just throwing shit at the wall to not win. He’s going to try to win with what he knows which can be rigid fundamentally but he does have some nuance with some players he trusts. To the extent he’s even rigid fundamentally is also up for a bit of debate because he’s changed from Chicago to Minnesota and from his time even on the Knicks.

I do believe there’s trades the Knicks could make that could put the players they’re most vested in as advantageous position as possible but to the extent it might be a reality may be the last 8-10 minutes of a game. To change the team around for that short a time, you’ve got to be so precise in your ability to judge talent and how it might complement in alternative situations that it borderlines impossibility. I’m also not terribly creative or have the cap knowledge to facilitate “real trades.” What I do is tweak with numbers to discover more outcomes for better or worse.

The simplest way to I can quantify the concept is to imagine players who qualify the rules of the trade market, your team, and available players as a “piece” in Texas Hold’em.

You’re vested players are the community cards.

Small Blind & Big Blind would be players qualifying for the trade market rules. Your remaining chips or what you bet with separate of obligated money/contract matching, would be your draft capital.

“Winning the Pot” would be acquiring talent that supplements your vested talent. It could be the case there’s no available agreement to be had without including one of those vested players. Maybe there’s a few teams with major draft deficits with unhappy talent that might have other needs. It could also be the case that as the team gets healthy, if that’s possible, you decide to keep you’re current talent and chips and not trade anyone.

In my opinion the ideal 4-5 Rotation game to game would look like:

Randle: 35 Mins
Mitch: 25 Mins
Obi: 25 Mins / 10 minutes w/ Randle
Taj: 16 Minutes / 4 minutes qtr avg

If we’re talking about Sims instead of Taj:

Randle: 35 Mins
Mitch: 25 Mins
Obi: 25 Mins
Sims: 11 Mins

There’s noticeable exceptions but what I want to talk about is Mitch. I’m unsure we can ignore he’s added a lot of weight, and while he’s improved in ways, there’s a glint of freakishness missing and I don’t know if it’s because he hasn’t been 100% this season. It’s just somethings not all the way there and he’s also expressed coming off the bench before. It’s not like Thibs doesn’t trust Taj. What if he just started for 4 minutes? Idk how radical that would be but maybe that’s a way to get Mitch a bit more engaged? I’m spit balling. Until Mitch can play extended minutes for a while, I want his minutes around what his season average is. Also, in Obi’s dream minutes, could he have AT LEAST Copelands usage when he was with us? I’m sure Obi’s better, and as can be inferred above, I hold Copeland in high esteem in Knicks history and lore. Reality never boar it out what he teased he could be in spurts, but Obi seems like real deal and we should lean into that with clearing up some positional overlap.

As for the positional shake up currently occurring with Kemba’s exclusion removal from the line-up and it’s also likely where we’d see traded talent if trades were to occur. It’s hard to say how the remaining positions might look like. I’ll say that even with the exclusion of all those listed vested players, there’s a lot of various contract matching points the Knicks can make depending on how creative they might need to be. Again, this would be assuming the player is also looking for a change as well but I won’t be listing the various amounts of possibilities, but I count more than 10+ casually.

Who were Randle’s comments for?

Now admittedly, I could be out on a limb here for a branch that doesn’t exist. Caveat out, who I believe drew some of the ire of Randle is actually us, fans generally. I think Randle has been through it and is okay with playing in here, signing his extension for lifechanging money, but also flexibility for New York to build with him validates that.

It’s nothing to be in a tizzy about or think he’s being immature because he should expect that. I just think all he’s really saying is he wants to win, they want to win and part of their success, for better or worse, are the fans which brings them up. Just my two cents, but that’s about as far as I go with conjecture because this devolves into fan policing too quick if we’re not already teetering the line.

We’re better than we were last year. That’s objective if only by a margin so far as wins produced. The team is far from optimized but their not all bad problems to have, just having a few growing pains as the team tweaks with the rotation and potentially the roster as the trade exceptions begin to expire. I also think there’s a bit more of the slide but I try to not count wins or losses before they happen once we’re in the season. Even with my thoughts, I still believe this team has the potential to have good stretches for reasons of past precedence of RJ having a slow start and the team performing well late in the season after working out the kinks. I still hold onto the 50+ win dreams.

-Until Next Time

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Knicks

The Knicks are the NBA “Bar” [Honorable Mentions]

Man looking through hole

Now if you’re looking at my like this pieces picture, sometimes you cut the fat to enjoy the meat. To keep a long piece from being longer, the was an omission of three teams, all of which garnished wins last night bringing the group of eight to growing to larger than a third of the league (11). One is within error (Chicago) but there are two shocking underperforming teams in Dallas and Miami. Appearing to have stabilized slightly, all three teams could be poised to execute down the stretch. Lets dive down into the context of their remaining games as All-Star break fast approaches.

Miami Heat:
With a win last night and five games remaining isn’t a lot of time but could be all Miami needs to prepare for the second half of the season. Filled with early season woes (injuries/COVID) could be the main reason for this, but the concern was warranted. They were having championship fatigue without winning and coming so close and not making it over the hump has doomed team chemistry in the past. They have their fair share of challenges facing the Raptors (similar season story), the Jazz and the improving Pelicans(back half of a double header). Two games against the very beatable Hawks could help even out any potential hard losses, or pile on a bad stretch with the offense they can produce.
Predication: (3-2)

Chicago Bulls:
Chicago and Miami may share similar color schemes and turns out they have a very similar end to the season as Miami. Similar is the worst ways, and differs in more adverse ways. There’s one game against the Timberwolves who just changed their coach which is usually followed by a brief honeymoon regardless or ability. They’re a trap on any schedule at this point and that’s their “best” game. They battle the Suns, Raptors, Nuggets and finish off on the Pelicans. The benefit of the Pelicans game is that it’s the first game of a back to back and they may catch the Pelicans sleeping a game early. Also the last game before All-Star break for a team with playoff ambitions can be a must win for some organizations. Perhaps a bullish prediction coming, it will still have the Bulls seeing red.
Prediction: (2-3)

Dallas Mavericks:
While there’s still more than half the season left, the first game against Boston feels consequential. Two underperforming teams trying to survive to the All-Star break and stop the hemorrhaging coming to head. The problems for Dallas is they could get caught looking ahead for their games later in the week against the 76ers and Brooklyn. Finishing up with OKC and Orlando after the first three games can be a reprieve or leave just enough water to drown in. KP has fallen from grace and the flaws to him game that Knicks fans were blind to, and Dallas minimized in their acquisition have come to bare. They’re glaring and sometimes the fundamentals are more important at a certain size and height than overall skills. Dallas seems a lot more to figure out and their one two punch is more resembling that of a one-armed boxer. Miami or Dallas will be one those penciled in teams poised for success that falls for reasons unseen in the preseason. This prediction should key you in to whom we’re predicting to rise or fall.
Prediction: (1-4)

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Knicks Scale Measurement Thoughts

The Knicks are the NBA “Bar”

Raising the NBA to NYK standard.
Middle of the PackNew York KnicksCharlotte Hornets
Memphis GrizzlesBoston CelticsToronto Raptors
Golden State WarriorsIndiana PacersDenver Nuggets
Teams vying to be on the right side of .500

While they’re not title contenders fans exuberance about their teams play is palpable. Annexed from the scope of relevancy for the better part of two decades, hungry Knicks fans are learning their new place in the league, The Bar.
Referred to by a few different names, the good/bad (bad/good) team, tough playoff out; however in doing this we miss the chance for a more effective title, one of respect. I petition for that team, the one that beats bad teams and catches good teams sleeping and fight ever possession to be the NBA Bar.
Nestled right under .500 having played one of the other hardest schedules, NYK has flipped the Vegas script of being a top five, maybe top three lottery team. Under Coach Thibodeau these young Knicks lead by All-Star Julius Randle are not only playing better but have bulldozed their way to wins and league-wide relevancy. Winning 38 games over the prior two years, they could potentially reach the half way point over the next six. A lot of this rides on the roaster adjusting to play without their defensive anchor for 4-6 weeks (get well Mitch; Feb 13th), but looking to the eight teams between 14-16 wins can provide a bit of context for the next six games before All-Star break.

New York Knicks:
Starting with the primary focus for the Knicks fans, Julius Randle and his All-Star campaign are leading the Knicks potentially to their first post season since 2013. Inspiring play from the rookies and young roaster as they prove week after week, and game after game how together they are as a unit. With Maestro Tom conducting the players to their respective bests, this Knicks team us humming along; the vibes are good. Playing the Pistons twice, they also compete against Sacramento, Golden State, Indiana, and San Antonio. Competitive teams seem to bring the best and help the team reach the fullness of their potential. Champions? Hell no. Top Contenders? Still no but that’s not the point or what Knicks are refereeing too as far as bucking expectations and the trends. From Vegas and from any basketball media outlet, it seemed a forgone conclusion the Knicks were headed to another lottery mosh posh of a season filled with more losing than winning; more ridicule than praise. While it was slow and fraught with defensive denial, the team they’ve reached a point where old narratives have begun to wash away. Old habits are hard to rid and this (almost) half season of respectable Basketball can be an outlier, but this isn’t something new for Tom as he always maximize the roasters he gets for success.
Predication: (4-2)

Charlotte Hornets:
Despite some apprehension dollar figure on the Hayward deal and early season adjustments from the youngest Ball brother with a color commentary to excite, the Hornets are a great watch, and the Knicks direct competition for title of NBA Bar. They can score in so many different ways, the ball is on a string and Hayward is showing the contract may have been judged too harshly, even if the the production falls off as the end of contract approaches. He’s a past All-Star with All-Star considerations this year, played through adversity and injury, and has the skills to optimize good play and develop a confidence with their young players. Luckily, they face some harder teams approaching the break with games against some of the best teams of the West (UTA, PHX, POR). Games against Golden State and media favorite Kings could be coin flips and they end with a HUGE trap game against league worst Timberwolves.
Prediction (2-4)

Memphis Grizzles:
Infected with the injury bug the squad led by Superstar Ja Morant continues to utilize their depth and mix of skills to fill the gaps as to stay afloat. Miami lottery pick, current day Grizzly Justice Winslow is slated for return at the end of the month and Morant’s partner scheduled back sometimes next month if there’s no reassessment needed. Games against the drowning Wizards and reeling Mavericks are a repreive against the other three teams they face. Two against the Clippers, a game verse Houston and finishing up verse the lacking Bucks could leave them going 3-3, but the Bucks are going to be facing pressure to win, and Houston’s been playing hard. For those same reasons, you expect Dallas to be feeling the pressure to preform so they’re facing five hungry teams.
Prediction (2-4)

Boston Celtics:
If you have a Celtics fan in your life, they’re currently experiencing the exact opposite of Knicks joys. Scary Terry (Rozier) is putting together a career stretch and the capacity to play in a offense with multiple creators in the Hornets rotation. This is buyers remorse and seller dread and we’re only talking about one aspect of the tumultuous season, incomplete roaster, and suboptimal/disappointing play from Kemba Walker. All isn’t over with a lighter schedule, but Boston has proven as of late, no lead is too safe that they can hold. Their first four should be “easier” on paper but without their engine and hear in Marcus Smart, even those games seem bleak. Also if your team cannot function with just the removal of one player, unless their a superstar, how well positioned is that team to win. Auspicious horizon for the Celtics unless they can get Kemba right, fast.
Prediction (3-3)

Toronto Raptors:
Playing four teams with playoff hopes would make this seem more difficult then the opponents records would suggest. Games against 76ers are followed by Miami who appear to have (maybe) found themselves, the persistent Rockets, and the first guy in line outside looking in Bulls. The last two are verse the careening Celtics and the Odd Pistons. Odd in that they rise to the good teams but can’t put it together a decent stretch of games. Detroit is currently the worst team in the league and likely the one catching teams sleeping and maintaining their leads and energy. Raptors season was off the road to start the season and have recently rounded back into form behind the creative platoons. They play like Raptors, opportune pack hunters who will work it around to make opposing teams feel there’s too many leaks to fix. Defensively they’re no the same they’ve been, but with such a well rounded roaster and good coaching will lead them to success down this stretch.
Prediction (4-2)

Golden State Warriors:
Steph is leading this team with MVP numbers. While the team has a limited ceiling without Klay and the player he is, they’re causing anguish to people who claim to watch basketball and hate Steph Curry. Small Point guards have limitation, but we’re talking about the greatest shooter of all time when shooting is at an absolute premium. They play against our Knicks, the Pacers, and Charlotte first and finish off on three Western playoff teams (LAL, POR, & PHX). While they’re not the same lottery bound team as they were last year, facing the hardest schedule of the group leaves them facing the most adversity heading into All-Star break.
Prediction: (2-4)

Indiana Pacers:
The Pacers have been up and down. They’ve got some of the best defenders at the anchor of the paint. The awkward fit is offensively with Sabonis and Turner and the bench being hit or miss in their production has them a bit lower, but overall meeting expectations. Facing five playoff hopeful teams and the one team more on the outs has shown out against Brooklyn (Cleveland). They’re not world beaters, but if a team walks in thinking it’s going to be a walk in the park are in for a bit of surprise. I don’t think they go winless but they’ve got the best chance of the eight to see a donut in the win column.
Prediction (1-5)

Denver Nuggets:
Nikola Jokić putting together his best campaign to date for MVP, the team as a whole is a bit of a disappointment. Believed to be in the top half of the West after their inspiring bubble play, that overall team success is appearing more of lighting in a bottle than a standard to hold them to. Murray is back down on Earth and Jerami Grant wanting to take his talent elsewhere has definitely been cited for the disappointment. It would be a shame if that success lead to lax preparation for one of the better teams we saw last year. Keeping the more recent play as the standard, it’s most likely they go even despite being against lesser competition.
Predication: (3-3)

Until Next Time~

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Data Knicks

RJ Barrett for Most Improved Player [W]

To anyone is Knick’s world the RJ Barrett snub of either all-rookie team was caused by the changing goal posts the media likes to hit to fit their new numbers on judging rookies against each other without comparing their teams & situations like all their opportunities is equal. Him not being on that team doesn’t change the reality of him being one of the 10 best rookies last year. He’s still at least the 3rd best player in that draft and I will touch on the stretch RJ was putting together before the shut down, and the added parts to his game we see already in the preseason.
This isn’t MVP numbers by any means but just to give the full context and my opinion having watched all his tape from his rookie year and his early preseason games. During his last month of play (12 games) RJ averaged 17/4.5/2.8 on 44% (6.33/14.42) from the field, 28% (1.25/4.17) from distance, and 64% (3.16/4.75) from the line. Due to the shutdown and subsequent outcomes of COVID, it was the longest offseason for non-playoff teams in a non-lockout year, obsessive basketball players are likely to see larger than usual improvements in their games. It’s also important to understand his position and the archetype of his growth to the modern game is that of Lebron-Lite.
To what degree and to what people would actually accept that is one thing but moving forward to Lebron’s 19 year-old season, he posted higher numbers (because he’s Lebron), but there are noticeable similarities to their game and their percentages. Lebron’s rookie numbers are 21/5.5/5.9 on 44% (7.9/18.9) from the field, 29% (.8/2.7) from three, and 75% (4.4/5.8) from the line. Cleveland also went 35-47 his rookie year as well. It’s also important that Mike Miller (an actual coach) the Knicks were playing at a 33 win-pace. That would be more reflective of the Knicks teams play since we’re removing Fizdale’s “coaching.” If you believe other wise you must not have been watching. Fiz aside, the percentages are very similar and the numbers for that stretch are Lebron-like on less production and usage. Lebron could handle that usage and is a better creator and player but he was also given the keys to the offense where in RJ’s case, he’s not able to run the offense with Payton in tow.

Now to look at RJ’s first two preseason games, there’s even a further context to those numbers since he missed his first six shots. He finished his first game on 7/10 and then put up 10/17 the following game. He showed an improved decision making, cleaned up his mid-game pull-back and hit 5 of his first 7 free throw attempts (71%). I cannot imagine Payton being on the team past the trade deadline with how he and RJ are players that clash on the floor. When and if he’s traded will greatly impact RJ’s ability to produce and have more of an opportunity to create and learn how to better facilitate. Part of his growth will be in opportunity given, but with enough caveats, RJ can seriously surprise the league coming. My prediction is he’ll average 20/6/4 shooting 47% (9/19) from the field, 33% (1.4/4.2) from beyond the arc. If he can average 6 free throw attempts, which he averaged in college, and convert 68-70% from the line, he could even push his points total closer to 22/23 a game. Comparing that against his actual rookie averages of 14.3/5/2.6 and what he seems capable of if given the additional responsibility with his visible improvements it would be hard to ignore the possibility for the most improved player. Adding in the chip on his shoulder being left off the All-Rookie teams meaning most of NBA discourse is down on RJ. Flipping that perspective would also give those same minds a narrative to go along with the numbers for Most Improved Player.

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Knicks Uncategorized

The 2020-2021 Knicks Roaster Prediction [L]

As we’re on the cusp of a shortened free agency in the year of Our Lord 2020 anything is possible. With around 20m of cap space left, NYK is in the possession to take on contracts for picks, which they’ve already begun. The line-up is hard to predict so some players will be omitted because I believe there’s a chance they’re either not here at game one, or by the trade deadline.
My Starters – Ntilikina, Quickley, RJ, OBI 1, Robinson
My Bench – Payton, Rivers, Evans, Randle, Noel
My Reserves – Knox, Powell, DSJ, Bullock, Spellman
No issue being wrong but there’s one low hanging fruit for an “if” situation I could think of.

If the Kings want to keep Bogdanovic and match the Hawks offer sheet…

NYK Receives – Corey Joseph (12.6m*/2yrs), Kings 2021 2nd Rd
Kings Receives – DSJ (5.6m/1yr)

This gives the Kings the ability to just be under the cap one more year before the Fox extension kicks in. Unless there’s some other cap-positive moves made, they won’t likely be under the cap for the following 5 years with that extension. The Knicks get the better version of a veteran point making Payton another bench point to maybe flip for another 2nd at a similar contract value and contract length.

It’s early, but maybe the weather is changing in the Garden. While gathering future second round picks isn’t the sexiest thing to do, on some level, acquiring assets is necessary for being able to pack offers for disgruntled stars. Now it’s not as simple to have the ability to but to also have a structure in place that is attractive to those stars as they leave less prepared teams.