Category: Data

Categories
Data Knicks Scale Measurement Thoughts Trades

Knicks as I see it

I’m unsure if we’re watching the same thing.

After 23 games last seasons the Knicks were 10-13.

When you compare it to this seasons 11-12 record and it’s just so incredibly Knicks and so incredibly emotional to say, “We’re shit and awful and everyone’s a fraud!” when we stand at in a better place than last season. That is an objective fact.

Addressing the feeling is necessary because I go through it too like during the 3rd quarter, it is known. The bases of my critique is that what we achieved last year was a team coming together along the season. The beginning of any season is always the biggest trap for ANY analysis because you’re just operating off less data. Admitting to be being completely hyperbolic, but I don’t know off the top of my head what in life is ever a true linear progression, so why we expect that from our team?

Another thing to keep in mind is the Knicks played their first 25 games without Derrick Rose.

The Trade Market Thoughts

First rule of the trade market is that it doesn’t really open up until there’s trade eligibility. For anyone signed in the offseason, they can’t be traded until what always ends up being like 25-30 games into the next season.

Second rule is that these players are people and while it may be in your power to just uproot someone, doing so without the consent of the athlete can really paint an organization in a certain kind of light. People want to be respected so that’s the very least you could do if you were operating any organization.

I’d be surprised if you saw an Rose/RJ/IQ/Randle/Obi included in any deal at this point. Some may be for some exceptional star, but I think the organization is invested in those five more than the rest to varying degrees and rationale. Without being able of putting them in numerical order due to being an irrational fan, for some it’s potential growth they see in them where as for others it’s what they bring now as well. Maybe both for one or another.

There’s draft capital and other supplemental players on the roaster that may want to have a change or fresh start. Maybe there’s some other factor or need for a specific person that the Knicks could help. It’s only my conjecture but I think Obi’s growth and what his role is or could be for this team has made a few redundancies no longer palatable. You’d be lying to yourself if you claimed you wouldn’t be surprised if any of the players above were traded, but it also still could happen. We can’t know what’s pretty exclusive information like peoples private lives, let alone wealthy one’s.

Welcome to Copeland

Knicks fan created, Copeland. Larger than life and his numbers will ever tell you, Chris Copeland played forward for the Knicks, Bucks, and Pacers. He had a certain level of fandom and brought joy to this New York Knicks fanbase.

We were introduced to Cope as 28 year old rookie. Beloved by Breen he showcased in his rookie year a 42% 3-point clip and had shown some good rim finishing well on occasion too. He played well enough to secured life changing money on Indiana but he was always cherished in Knicks land. He played 4 years in the league and which during he suffered from a infamous stabbing.

Reality is harsh but if you’re wondering what we’re doing in Copeland, what about the trades or how any of this matters… that is by design. The idea is to build slowly to have a more sound perspective on things that are otherwise emotional or hard to define. With certain foods/meals, it can take a certain pallet to enjoy it as viscously as someone from that culture/region/time, or generally for that matter. The same can be with both the individual words said or unsaid. You can include the overall narrative too.

Fairly and finally before we get to the point or piece that connects all this is all the above and below is my conjecture that can be right or wrong.

The Point

Thibs was COY last year, but it’s not absolvent. He has flaws but there’s no way he’s just throwing shit at the wall to not win. He’s going to try to win with what he knows which can be rigid fundamentally but he does have some nuance with some players he trusts. To the extent he’s even rigid fundamentally is also up for a bit of debate because he’s changed from Chicago to Minnesota and from his time even on the Knicks.

I do believe there’s trades the Knicks could make that could put the players they’re most vested in as advantageous position as possible but to the extent it might be a reality may be the last 8-10 minutes of a game. To change the team around for that short a time, you’ve got to be so precise in your ability to judge talent and how it might complement in alternative situations that it borderlines impossibility. I’m also not terribly creative or have the cap knowledge to facilitate “real trades.” What I do is tweak with numbers to discover more outcomes for better or worse.

The simplest way to I can quantify the concept is to imagine players who qualify the rules of the trade market, your team, and available players as a “piece” in Texas Hold’em.

You’re vested players are the community cards.

Small Blind & Big Blind would be players qualifying for the trade market rules. Your remaining chips or what you bet with separate of obligated money/contract matching, would be your draft capital.

“Winning the Pot” would be acquiring talent that supplements your vested talent. It could be the case there’s no available agreement to be had without including one of those vested players. Maybe there’s a few teams with major draft deficits with unhappy talent that might have other needs. It could also be the case that as the team gets healthy, if that’s possible, you decide to keep you’re current talent and chips and not trade anyone.

In my opinion the ideal 4-5 Rotation game to game would look like:

Randle: 35 Mins
Mitch: 25 Mins
Obi: 25 Mins / 10 minutes w/ Randle
Taj: 16 Minutes / 4 minutes qtr avg

If we’re talking about Sims instead of Taj:

Randle: 35 Mins
Mitch: 25 Mins
Obi: 25 Mins
Sims: 11 Mins

There’s noticeable exceptions but what I want to talk about is Mitch. I’m unsure we can ignore he’s added a lot of weight, and while he’s improved in ways, there’s a glint of freakishness missing and I don’t know if it’s because he hasn’t been 100% this season. It’s just somethings not all the way there and he’s also expressed coming off the bench before. It’s not like Thibs doesn’t trust Taj. What if he just started for 4 minutes? Idk how radical that would be but maybe that’s a way to get Mitch a bit more engaged? I’m spit balling. Until Mitch can play extended minutes for a while, I want his minutes around what his season average is. Also, in Obi’s dream minutes, could he have AT LEAST Copelands usage when he was with us? I’m sure Obi’s better, and as can be inferred above, I hold Copeland in high esteem in Knicks history and lore. Reality never boar it out what he teased he could be in spurts, but Obi seems like real deal and we should lean into that with clearing up some positional overlap.

As for the positional shake up currently occurring with Kemba’s exclusion removal from the line-up and it’s also likely where we’d see traded talent if trades were to occur. It’s hard to say how the remaining positions might look like. I’ll say that even with the exclusion of all those listed vested players, there’s a lot of various contract matching points the Knicks can make depending on how creative they might need to be. Again, this would be assuming the player is also looking for a change as well but I won’t be listing the various amounts of possibilities, but I count more than 10+ casually.

Who were Randle’s comments for?

Now admittedly, I could be out on a limb here for a branch that doesn’t exist. Caveat out, who I believe drew some of the ire of Randle is actually us, fans generally. I think Randle has been through it and is okay with playing in here, signing his extension for lifechanging money, but also flexibility for New York to build with him validates that.

It’s nothing to be in a tizzy about or think he’s being immature because he should expect that. I just think all he’s really saying is he wants to win, they want to win and part of their success, for better or worse, are the fans which brings them up. Just my two cents, but that’s about as far as I go with conjecture because this devolves into fan policing too quick if we’re not already teetering the line.

We’re better than we were last year. That’s objective if only by a margin so far as wins produced. The team is far from optimized but their not all bad problems to have, just having a few growing pains as the team tweaks with the rotation and potentially the roster as the trade exceptions begin to expire. I also think there’s a bit more of the slide but I try to not count wins or losses before they happen once we’re in the season. Even with my thoughts, I still believe this team has the potential to have good stretches for reasons of past precedence of RJ having a slow start and the team performing well late in the season after working out the kinks. I still hold onto the 50+ win dreams.

-Until Next Time

Categories
Data Knicks

RJ Barrett for Most Improved Player [W]

To anyone is Knick’s world the RJ Barrett snub of either all-rookie team was caused by the changing goal posts the media likes to hit to fit their new numbers on judging rookies against each other without comparing their teams & situations like all their opportunities is equal. Him not being on that team doesn’t change the reality of him being one of the 10 best rookies last year. He’s still at least the 3rd best player in that draft and I will touch on the stretch RJ was putting together before the shut down, and the added parts to his game we see already in the preseason.
This isn’t MVP numbers by any means but just to give the full context and my opinion having watched all his tape from his rookie year and his early preseason games. During his last month of play (12 games) RJ averaged 17/4.5/2.8 on 44% (6.33/14.42) from the field, 28% (1.25/4.17) from distance, and 64% (3.16/4.75) from the line. Due to the shutdown and subsequent outcomes of COVID, it was the longest offseason for non-playoff teams in a non-lockout year, obsessive basketball players are likely to see larger than usual improvements in their games. It’s also important to understand his position and the archetype of his growth to the modern game is that of Lebron-Lite.
To what degree and to what people would actually accept that is one thing but moving forward to Lebron’s 19 year-old season, he posted higher numbers (because he’s Lebron), but there are noticeable similarities to their game and their percentages. Lebron’s rookie numbers are 21/5.5/5.9 on 44% (7.9/18.9) from the field, 29% (.8/2.7) from three, and 75% (4.4/5.8) from the line. Cleveland also went 35-47 his rookie year as well. It’s also important that Mike Miller (an actual coach) the Knicks were playing at a 33 win-pace. That would be more reflective of the Knicks teams play since we’re removing Fizdale’s “coaching.” If you believe other wise you must not have been watching. Fiz aside, the percentages are very similar and the numbers for that stretch are Lebron-like on less production and usage. Lebron could handle that usage and is a better creator and player but he was also given the keys to the offense where in RJ’s case, he’s not able to run the offense with Payton in tow.

Now to look at RJ’s first two preseason games, there’s even a further context to those numbers since he missed his first six shots. He finished his first game on 7/10 and then put up 10/17 the following game. He showed an improved decision making, cleaned up his mid-game pull-back and hit 5 of his first 7 free throw attempts (71%). I cannot imagine Payton being on the team past the trade deadline with how he and RJ are players that clash on the floor. When and if he’s traded will greatly impact RJ’s ability to produce and have more of an opportunity to create and learn how to better facilitate. Part of his growth will be in opportunity given, but with enough caveats, RJ can seriously surprise the league coming. My prediction is he’ll average 20/6/4 shooting 47% (9/19) from the field, 33% (1.4/4.2) from beyond the arc. If he can average 6 free throw attempts, which he averaged in college, and convert 68-70% from the line, he could even push his points total closer to 22/23 a game. Comparing that against his actual rookie averages of 14.3/5/2.6 and what he seems capable of if given the additional responsibility with his visible improvements it would be hard to ignore the possibility for the most improved player. Adding in the chip on his shoulder being left off the All-Rookie teams meaning most of NBA discourse is down on RJ. Flipping that perspective would also give those same minds a narrative to go along with the numbers for Most Improved Player.

Categories
Data Pictures Politics Thought Blurbs

COVID-19 Factors for Pause

COVID-19 cases per Month
COVID-19 deaths per Month

Let’s ignore the possibility of weather making the virus weaker or stronger because the biggest danger, I pose, is within our control. First lets look at the cases which are seemingly beginning their launch into the imaginary atmosphere. March was our discover, and April brought a temporary understanding but there’s a large degree of change that begins as a simmer in June, coming to boil in July. Another similar trend occurred from October to November where cases more than double month to month. My fear is that the recipe for this kind of situation is preparation for, and subsequent celebration of America’s most participated traditions. July 4th and Halloween would fit those bills and that’s where the feeling of dread seeps in.
We’ve entered a season of mass habitual celebration that our society has already shown are more important than the greater social empathy needed to combat the unimaginable death coming.

The lack of a basic understanding the Coronavirus will be the largest damnation on American culture since the shame brought to the forefront of civil rights movement. To define more clearly, the wrongs done to black people in a “just” nation points to the abject failure to identify our inner bigotries. In its most compact definition as we understand COVID-19, limiting your exposure to other people, wearing masks and maintain social distance when in public places are the best ways to combat the spread of this virus. This is more a measure of expectations because the time to prepare for this has past with Thanksgiving behind us.
We’ve hit the highest deaths since April just in November, which may be surpassed overall in the coming Winter months. The point to take away is that deaths are a lagging indicator of at least a month. Deaths were falling until July, when they begun feel the effects from July 4th, surging in the following Month. August shows how after an event of high participation that the ability to fight the drug of normalcy is harder to resist. You crave that attention after being socially deprived for so long. From some unaffected individuals and families, they’re experience makes them feel suppressed instead of protected. It isn’t just the day itself but the few weeks prior and the weekend through the event.

I’ll end it with a few things on my mind, all in the form of questions, some with general answers. Some may have no answer and a few will be my opinion and the context for that opinion.
1. What’s the percentage of people who have COVID-19 without symptoms?
Over 40%
2. Why should we worry about deaths when the death rate is falling?
The death rate is falling because we have a better understanding of the virus on one level; however, the more responsible factor for the drop is now over 40% of all COVID-19 cases are outstanding which is only growing. The larger that percentage grows, the more active demand is on the medical system already taking on water in certain states. The more those are strained and some begin to break, localized death hotspots are a likely phenomena to follow.
3. How would you rank event’s by the great participation in American culture?
4 Fourth of July
5 Halloween
3 Thanksgiving
2 Christmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa
1 New Years
My thought’s aren’t an overall ranking or personal preference, but on how many people celebrate these events with gatherings of people for extended periods of time. Those gatherings can have different adjectives and obligations to attend but these events are still effecting you indirectly by the sheer participation by society at large in these events. Certain eateries and stores close or have shorter hours, some jobs are offering timely bonus, or more likely, having workers ask for advances on their pay. I hope that while it is rough to look at our failings of society, ignoring them allows those to fester and debilitate other functions of society indirectly. Lets look into the adversity people are stuck in and achieve solutions with people, not profit, at the center of our problem solving logos.

Categories
Data Graphs Politics Scale Measurement Thoughts

How should we unpack? – 2020 Election

The election we’re having in 2020 is going to be important for countless different reasons but the main thing that’s going to be on peoples mind is going to be COVID-19. Not November 3rd but Oct 9th, 18th, and the 27th, the three weeks prior to the election. If this was a court of law, the evidence would be circumstantial but also past the point of the severity. It would cross a threshold where any standard of deviation doesn’t change the grim picture ahead. While COVID-19 is now begun to being an endemic virus, this is not thing to simply ignore for the populations health and the way that compounds to higher rates of death. Some of what we’ve learned gives us a better glimpse to what we can expect regarding the outcomes of the virus spread. One is that it is rapid and can take days to develop symptoms but with that is deaths lag so don’t fall for rising infections without deaths. We know three-four weeks out of a surge of infections do the deaths begin to add up and we begin to tally them.

First is to look outside to what can be learned for most countries to understand our outlandish position. India has peaked for now but shows the immense risk for their populations. Europe is currently in their second wave, which began to really show itself the end of August. Spain, France, and the Untied Kingdom cases are rising dramatically and providing proof to the theory of the second wave being worse than the first. Mexico is trending upwards and while Brazil’s trends are falling right now, they’re outcomes vary greatly. Lastly, is that Germany seems to be the model not our neighbors to the north. Canada’s cases are starting to resemble the rises Spain and France were beginning to see a month ago.

Coming back home, cases on a whole have begun to rise, but not at the same rate as the European countries in particular are experiencing their second waves. We cannot measure the space the United States is in through the same way we analyze them because they’re statistical profile is so different, highlighted during the summer, you cannot glean the same outcomes in response to COVID-19. Where it’s relative is we really need to understand the scale of the current rise of cases in the United States. The fear is our second wave of the virus can look a lot more catastrophic compared to what these other countries are facing now. Let’s take the analogy of the pandemic waves and think of it literally. The data can represent the crests of the first waves.

The number’s can be used to represent how many cm of height to a wave.
ex: America’s wave would be 750m high compared to Canada’s 27m high.
Current day waves where the same rule can apply.
Ex. America’s wave would now be 370m high compared to Spain’s 102m
This is with an outlier day reported in Spain on September 28th.
Ex. Spain’s wave would now be 310m high compared to the 102m avg.

Now taking out the United States, those other Countries dropped their cases down to a low level for an extended period of time due to their populations preventive behaviors. There’s a clear visible trend to see the rise in cases and be properly concerned to ready yourself once more for being more diligent/militant in those behaviors as they did in March through May/June. The issue with their outcomes and what the United States is that the cases never fell to any discernable level of acceptance to signify the end of a wave.

The situation in America it’s closer to resembling a never ending storm surge that has/had been dropping very slowly. To really understand the current leveling off and stagnation of cases is largely due to behavior in populations and schools holding in-person classes for the wrong age group. For that we need to go to state by state data to know what’s happening beneath the surge for what a second wave looks like for us. Only Arizona, Connecticut, Florida*, Georgia, Louisiana*, NY, NJ, Oklahoma, and Vermont are falling in cases. Twelve other states are stagnant as far as number but that isn’t a good because if the cases have not fallen to low levels like like NY, NJ and Vermont did, that stagnation is not a sufficient and can be viewed in the negative. In the writing of this piece, New York and New Jersey have begun to see their cases rise, Florida’s cases are dropping due to their elderly populations sensitivity to COVID-19. As the dust settles, there are still 40+ states in vulnerable situations where there are 23 states that cases are rising significantly, nine of which are rising in very dramatic levels. Of the 23 states with rising cases, most are almost all rural, but predominantly red states (13 or 56%). While all states were impacted by the first wave, Trump himself made the calculation of looking only at Republican run states as far as judging the response to COVID-19. The issue is that this data is maintaining a stagnation to the already slow falling American cases.

Remembering the first point of the United States having over 80% of the those states are in compromised situations. Next is that due to the issue of the size of our first wave potentially blinding us to and exponential rise in cases which in it’s first iteration or wave, crippled the global economy. Third is that Europe is proving the theory of the second wave being worse than the first wave. In finality, we know that deaths are a lagging indicator so when this begins to really impact a majority of red lead states, there will be a shift. If there’s a coalition of folks who want to have maintained power the data would suggest to, none stop talk about healthcare and the mishandling of COVID-19 by Trump and Conservative leaders. It is not combative to the importance of November 3rd because if that date holds greater importance, the Biden/Harris Campaign or any coalition that wants power would promise and DELIVER on healthcare. It’s really that simple.